Analiza techniczna

EWI się nawraca...
2008-11-04 03:18
... na to co piszę w Fusach od dwóch tygodni - patrz Fusy 43. Nagle dziś ich olśniło i piszą tak:

Tonight, based on new evidence, we?re elevating the odds for another possible wave structure that would account for recent price action. Over the weekend, Investors Intelligence reported that for the week ending October 31, a record 1454 stocks registered a weekly selling climax (www.InvestorsIntelligence.com). This condition occurs when a stock makes a new 52-week low and then closes higher for the week. II notes that weekly selling climaxes represent a sign of accumulation and indicate that stocks are passing from weak hands to strong ones. As the above chart shows, they most often occur at or near a market low, even if it?s only an interim low. Last week?s record extreme eclipsed the previous record of 1385 selling climaxes for the week that ended January 25 of this year. That previous extreme coincided with the wave 3 of (1) low, but stocks did not move appreciably lower until after wave (2) topped in mid-May.

We?ve followed the II buying and selling climaxes for years, and while not perfect (no indicator is), its track record is good at identifying psychological buying and selling extremes, even if the price extremes come about thereafter, such as occurred in January. Last week?s record climaxes likely coincides with a third wave extreme, much like the then-record number in late January. This new record suggests that we should elevate another potential and place it on even footing with the others.

Truncated fifth waves (see EWP, p.35) are relatively rare and I can?t remember the last time I saw an ending diagonal pattern (see EWP, p.36) mark the completion of a truncated fifth. Nonetheless, truncated fifth waves do occur at a specific point in the development of the wave structure and that happens to be when the market traces out a ?particularly strong third wave.? That description certainly applies to the present situation, so if such a pattern did develop at the recent low, it would be consistent with EWP?s explanation of where the pattern most often occurs. And both the DJIA and S&P 500 (cash index) DID make new closing lows on October 27, even if they have yet to make new intraday lows, so it?s not too much of a stretch consider a fifth wave down from October 14.



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